Tuesday, February 1, 2022

If the season ended today ...


You see that phrase all over sports journalism today. "If the season ended today," it goes, "the Patriots would still be on the golf course instead of in the Super Bowl." 

OK, that was a little bit of a cheap shot. But I wanted to play the game a little bit ... and since I don't know a damned thing about Wordle and don't intend to learn, I figured I'd play the game in an arena with which I'm a lot more familiar.

I've been doing a little bit of bracketology for the upcoming MIAA basketball statewide playoffs, and now that I know where to find the correct templates to create odd-numbered brackets, I thought I'd take today's MIAA power rankings in the MIAA Division 1 and 2 boys' and girls' tournament fields and see who'd be playing who at the end of this month. I stopped there because it's a lot of work and the teams in which I have the most interest are located there.

Of course, there are a lot more games to be played, but just for the sake of argument, remember this. The power ratings dictate the first 32 qualifiers in each division. But teams that finish at .500 or better but don't reach the top 32 with their power rating also qualify, and are added to the field.

For instance, if the season ended today, according to Jim Clark's rankings in the Boston Globe (not the official MIAA ones, but more accurate for the time being). there would be 41 qualifiers in boys' Division 1 and 45 in boys' Division 2. On the girls' side, there would be 41 qualifiers in D1 and 38 in D2.

Those numbers could change, of course. But right now, it's interesting to see how things would line up for the local teams.

In Division 1 of the boys' tournament, 18 teams would be sent into a preliminary round. That fate would be avoided by Attleboro, currently ranked 10th in the division, and the Bombardiers would draw No. 23 Everett in the Round of 32. No. 7 Franklin would entertain the winner of No. 26 Cambridge and No. 39 North Andover, and presuming the Panthers get past that, would entertain Attleboro (if victorious) in the Round of 16.

In Division 2, Mansfield currently has the top seed and would be guaranteed home games all the way to the state semifinals if successful. Meanwhile, 26 of the 45 teams will have to play in a preliminary round -- and from there would come Mansfield's first opponent, currently the winner of No. 33 West Springfield at No. 32 Nauset (there's some travel for you!).

Moving on, Mansfield would then get the winner of No. 17 Sharon at No. 16 Holyoke in the Round of 32. It's good to be the top seed, eh?

Stoughton, checking in at No. 25, would entertain No. 40 Somerset-Berkley, with the winner playing Kristen McDonnell's No. 8 Norwood team (which could face Mansfield in a Round of 8 game).

Over on the other side of the bracket, No. 31 Foxboro would play host to No. 34 Masconomet in a prelim, then get No. 2 North Quincy. No. 26 Oliver Ames would entertain No. 39 Nashoba with No. 7 Scituate up next. And No. 22 Canton, first entertaining No. 43 Revere, would visit No. 11 Whitman-Hanson with a win. 

As for girls' D1, No. 29 King Philip would be one of the 18 teams playing in a preliminary round, playing host to No. 36 Durfee. The reward? A trip to No. 4 Springfield Central in the Round of 32.

Bishop Feehan is the top-seeded local team at No. 7, and the Shamrocks would play host to either No. 26 Peabody or No. 39 Medford. Feehan would entertain either No. 10 Bridgewater-Raynham or No. 23 Reading in the Round of 16.

Maybe I should count Franklin as local (old habits die hard). The Panthers are the top seed today, and would get No. 32 Weymouth or No. 33 Boston Latin out of the prelims.

No. 8 Attleboro would face either No. 25 Lexington or No. 40 Worcester Doherty in the Round of 32 -- and could face Franklin in the Round of Eight.

No. 20 Mansfield (still in Division 1 unlike the boys) would travel to No. 13 Hopkinton in the Round of 32. Springfield Central is a potential opponent in the Round of 16.

And in Division 2, Dighton-Rehoboth right now has the 34th seed and would travel to No. 31 North Middlesex for the right to play No. 2 Oliver Ames.

Foxboro currently owns the 13th seed and would entertain No. 20 Ashland in the Round of 32, the winner visiting No. 4 Medfield. There is the potential of a Round of Eight meeting of Foxboro and No. 13 Canton.

But with at least 8-10 games left for everyone, it's all like New England weather. Wait a minute, and it will change.

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